It does strike me that we are setting up for a cooler CPI on wednesday. I especially liked the news that the BLS removed coffee from the measurement, seemingly because it rose so much and was skewing things even though it is a small part of the calculation.
There is no doubt that the government, writ large, is anxious to show that inflation is lower, at least in the data, such that the Fed can finally start to cut rates as they so desperately would like to do. I have been a skeptic that the Fed would actually push to try to help ensure that Trump is not elected, and in their mind, it seems clear that they believe cutting rates will help Biden. But it is not clear to me why that is the expectation. After all, if they cut and the price pressures that people actually feel, not the ones measured by the BLS, rise further, that will only help Trump more.
I want to believe they are ignoring the election, but it is getting harder to do so. that said, if we see a cooler number than forecast, we will certainly see a risk rally!
It does strike me that we are setting up for a cooler CPI on wednesday. I especially liked the news that the BLS removed coffee from the measurement, seemingly because it rose so much and was skewing things even though it is a small part of the calculation.
There is no doubt that the government, writ large, is anxious to show that inflation is lower, at least in the data, such that the Fed can finally start to cut rates as they so desperately would like to do. I have been a skeptic that the Fed would actually push to try to help ensure that Trump is not elected, and in their mind, it seems clear that they believe cutting rates will help Biden. But it is not clear to me why that is the expectation. After all, if they cut and the price pressures that people actually feel, not the ones measured by the BLS, rise further, that will only help Trump more.
I want to believe they are ignoring the election, but it is getting harder to do so. that said, if we see a cooler number than forecast, we will certainly see a risk rally!