Macro Notes - Apr 26, 2025
US Economy - Current state
Highlights
Us Consumer Confidence collapses. U Mich reading on Friday 2nd lowest on record.
Inflation expectations spike up dramatically north of 4% on a 5 yr horizon.
USD/CNH posts a “doji” pattern on the monthly chart, exhibiting ominous signs technically speaking.
DXY trading below key long term pivot of 100 but not decisively broken down yet.
XAU, gold miners ETF showing some signs of exhaustion, XAU rejected 3,500 decisively, possible Chinese buying has ceased for now.
US 30yr CDS still trading at recent wides just above 55 basis points despite overall calming in macro volatility indicators.
S&P 500: Dramatic break above 5472 despite weak data and ongoing political concerns as Fed indicates willingness to step in and support economic conditions.
VIX index continues to decline, trading under 25 at Friday’s close down from a. spike up to 35 just 2 weeks ago.
Week Ahead - Key Eco releases
Housing data
Jolts : some weakening in preliminary labour market indicators likely.
US GDP : Q4, 2024 handoff was decent, probably still early to see any real weakness from recent volatility show up in Q1 of 2025.
Chicago PMI
US core PCE: 0.4 last print, forecasted 0.1 print this week. Necessary condition for Fed rate cut.
Oil Inventories
IS Manufacturing
US Non Farm Payrolls : Softer print predicted at 140k, down from 235 print last, u/e rate forecasted to remain steady at 4.2%.
As always, I shall keep you posted here at Purity Macro.
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Disclaimer
The information provided in this post is for general use only and does not constitute a solicitation for investment. It should not be construed as professional financial advice. Seek independent professional consultation before making an investment decision.